Uncertainty Quantification in 3D Reservoir Modeling by Probabilistic Forecasting Approach

چکیده مقاله

Reservoir studies examine the importance of geologic, engineering, and economic parameters to formulate and optimize production plans. If there are many factors, these studies are high-priced unless simulation runs are chosen and analyzed efficiently. Reservoir modeling requires integration reservoir data and economic parameters. Integration is complex, because parameters such as permeabillity drive mechanism, structural framework, and fluid saturation distributions are uncertain. Uncertainty in permeability, for example, could be caused by prediction at unknown locations from inexact seismic data, poorly distributed of precise well data and imprecise seismic data. Therefore the impact of uncertainty levels in key geologic and production parameters such as NTG, permeability, porosity, vertical transmissibility, skin factor that must be assessed.

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