Considering Influential Factors on Oil Price Using a Step-Wise Regression Model

چکیده مقاله

In today’s world, all activities are rather influenced by use of fossil fuels especially crude oil. Therefore, oil as the most important source of energy supply possesses a particular position in economic performance so getting informed about trend of oil price and gaining a proper framework in planning and policy making depends on the recognition of effective factors on trend of crude oil prices. This research examines the effect of different variable like unconventional gas and oil supply, oil global demand, price of NYMEX exchange trading oil and Texas oil supply on WTI oil price under a stepwise regression model during 20062016. Results show that supplying unconventional oil and gas over the studying time period does not have any effect on the crude oil prices, whereas oil global demand, Texas oil supply and price of NYMEX exchange trading oil with the highest influence, will affect the oil prices. In conclusion, it is suggested to traders and policy makers that, one of the major influential factors on oil prices, will be the paper and financial markets. 

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