Crude Oil Price Forecast using Fuzzy Least Squares Method

چکیده مقاله

Since energy is a strategic product in international levels and the activities of states and organizations depends on this product and its related markets, the recognition of various effective factors on oil market including oil price in present and past times seems to be necessary for realization of the proper path for economic policies and strategies. In this paper, concerning the data mining and clustering methods, main and effective variables on oil price including the approved oil reservoir of OECD, OPEC oil production, the capacity of oil refineries of OECD member countries, gold price and economic growth of G7 have been considered. Then using fuzzy regression model, oil price forecast has been done. The obtained results show that the fuzzy coefficients of intercept, OECD oil reservoirs, OPEC oil production are negative and the coefficients of the capacity of OECD oil refineries, gold price and economic growth of G7 are all positive and have direct relation with increased oil price.

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